QuantSage/Macro
Authenticated · client-loaded
T
TL Pro
Macro dashboard

Cycle, confidence, drivers.

A compact read of the current macro phase, model confidence, top drivers, and what the regime usually rewards next.

Live Loading… Six-phase cycle engine
For informational use only. Cycle calls and flow maps are decision aids from public data, not personalized investment advice.
§ 02 — How the engine got there

The four pillars behind the call

Four weighted inputs · MPC cycle engine
Liquidity
Rate backbone
Global flow
Market reaction
Playbook for this phase

Reading the current setup

Opportunities

Risks

Signals to watch

§ 03 — Has this happened before?

Ten years of regime shifts

Liquidity regime over time · weekly cadence
§ 04 — What the regime is rewarding

Active investment themes

Theme engine · deterministic scoring + LLM narrative
Scoring themes… Ranking 10 investment themes against the current regime. First render takes 10–15 seconds after a cache miss.
§ 05 — A 150-year-old cycle theory

The Benner calendar

Samuel Benner's 1875 cycle · context only, not a signal
§ 06 — What the leading indicators are saying now

Four charts the engine reads first

Each series on its own cadence · monthly for CFNAI, daily for the curve
§ 6.1 — What inflation is doing now

Inflation pressure strip

Headline CPI, core CPI, and PCE show the latest monthly pressure plus the five-year trend. PPI stays explicitly pending until the upstream feed is live.

Inflation loading
§ 06b — What the dollar is doing now

Currency strength

FRED + FX series · daily
DTWEXBGS truth label
§ 6.3 — What energy and metals are doing

Commodities — and what they say about the regime

FRED + EIA · daily · phase-fit hints labelled heuristic, not forecasts

Loading commodity feed…

§ 07 — What bonds know before equities do

The US Treasury curve

FRED · daily · 2s10s spread history below
What it shows

Current US Treasury curve (FF · 2Y · 10Y · 30Y) above, 2s10s spread 30d trend below. Spread under 0 = yield curve inversion, a classic recession lead indicator.

Fed Funds
2s10s
30d change
Inversion streak
§ 08 — Money and materials, drawn on the map

Global flows

22 economies · UN Comtrade + US Treasury TIC · latest full year

Who fuels whom

Loading layer intro…

— · — · —

Hover a country to see its top partners. Line thickness = annual dollars traded.

§ 09 — Inside equity: who's leading, who's lagging

Sector rotation

11 SPDR sectors vs SPY · 1-month, 3-month, 6-month composite
§ 10 — Which economies are in Goldilocks — and which aren't

Growth vs inflation by country

World Bank · annual data
Quadrants
Goldilocks growth+, inflation low
Overheating growth+, inflation high
Slowdown growth-, inflation low
Stagflation growth-, inflation high
§ 11 — What the world charges to lend, by country

Country risk premia

Damodaran dataset · updated quarterly
Country Rating Equity RP Default spread Country RP Regime
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§ 12 — For analysts who want the rows

Raw data library

Collapsed by default · source freshness shown per group
Open macro source tables Loading source freshness…
Loading raw macro rows…
§ 13 — So what does all of this mean?

The three takeaways

Claude synthesis · three actionable bullets · every claim cited to the data above
Synthesizing takeaways… Claude is reading the regime + active themes. This takes around 10–20 seconds.